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“On the suitability of the generalized Pareto to model extreme waves”

Journal of Hydraulic Research (Taylor and Francis), 6 Mar 2018
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On 6th March 2018, the paper titled “On the suitability of the generalized Pareto to model extreme waves” by Rui Teixeira (ESR4) and his supervisors Maria Nogal and Alan O’Connor got published online in the website of the Journal of Hydraulic Research. The paper can be downloaded at the DOI link of the publisher’s website provided with the full reference below.

Abstract: Dealing with extreme events implies working with events that have low probability of occurrence. To characterize these, the peak-over-threshold method alongside the generalized Pareto distribution is commonly applied. However, when it comes to significant wave heights, this approach is not recommended. Here, the generalized Pareto distribution is discussed based on data collected around the coast of Ireland. A careful choice of threshold takes place, and a new methodology to establish the threshold level is introduced. Five indicators to evaluate the fitting are considered to compare the different statistical models. No evidence was identified to justify the rejection of the generalized Pareto distribution to model exceedances. Results show that it may be statistically less, equally or more adequate, depending on the peak-over-threshold implementation. Nevertheless, the generalized Pareto bounded character is of elementary interest for wave statistics. In some circumstances not considering it might lead to unrealistic significant wave return levels.

Keywords: Extremes, hydraulics of renewable energy systems, ocean engineering, peak-over-threshold, significant wave height, statistical theories and models.

Data from Met-Eireann oceanographic buoys labelled in the map as M1, M4, M5 and M6 are used in the analysis

Journal of Hydraulic Research (ISSN: 0022-1686, eISSN: 1814-2079), by Taylor and Francis, publishes research papers in theoretical, experimental and computational hydraulics and fluid mechanics, particularly relating to rivers, lakes, estuaries, coasts, constructed waterways, and some internal flows such as pipe flows. To reflect current tendencies in water research, outcomes of interdisciplinary hydro-environment studies with a strong fluid mechanical component are especially invited. Although the preference is given to the fundamental issues, the papers focusing on important unconventional or emerging applications of broad interest are also welcome (source). According to scimagojr, the journal has the following impact indicators:

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